Venture Math · Fall 2026

Series A & the Institutional Transition

Session 03 · Sept 16 · Mercedes Bent (Premise VC)
Data: Carta · re-visualized for classroom use
The bar — how few clear it, and how long it takesTEAL = ON PACE · CLAY = THE LONG TAIL

Most of the graduating happens in years 1–3 — then it thins out

Share of seed startups reaching a Series A, by quarter after the seed round. The peak is year 2; everything past year 3 is bridge territory.

YEAR 1 9.7% graduated YEAR 2 15.6% graduated YEAR 3 9.8% graduated YEAR 4 5.9% graduated YEAR 5 3.0% graduated 0.7% Q1 1.8% Q2 3.1% Q3 4.1% Q4 4.5% Q5 4.4% Q6 3.5% Q7 3.2% Q8 3.2% Q9 2.9% Q10 2.7% Q11 2.5% Q12 2.2% Q13 2.2% Q14 2.3% Q15 2.1% Q16 2.1% Q17 1.6% Q18 1.5% Q19 1.0% Q20 80% of the seeds that ever reach an A do so by year 3 bridges, extensions & anxiety

Carta · 9,851 US seed rounds · Q1 2017–Q4 2024

<30%
No seed cohort since Q3 2021 has seen more than 30% of its companies reach a Series A. Earlier cohorts — 2018–2020 — reached roughly 45–55% given enough years. The recent classes are tracking below every one of them at the same age. Carta · 12,249 US seed rounds · cohort study, data as of Q4 2025

The gap between rounds keeps stretching

Median years between primary rounds, measured each Q1. Seed→A has grown most.

Q1 2021 Q1 2022 Q1 2023 Q1 2024 Priced seed → A 1.46 1.58 1.95 2.10 +44% longer than 2021 Series A → B 1.81 1.59 1.98 2.26 +25% longer than 2021

Carta · median time between primary VC rounds · Q1 2021–Q1 2024

… and it was still stretching in 2025

Median days between primary rounds as of Q2 2025. A different cut of the same story: the seed→A wait is now ~20 months.

1 yr 2 yrs Seed → Series A 618 Series A → B 532 Series B → C 904 Series C → D 843 All rounds, median: 652 days in Q2 2025 — up from ~600 two years earlier. Bars show the Q2 2025 median for each step.

Carta · Series A fundraising report · Q2 2023–Q2 2025

Some startups fly through funding rounds — and some wander for years

Median age of the companies raising each round. The median Series A company is 2.9 years old — the “two years of runway” rule of thumb is the median, not the rule.

0 yrs 1 yr 2 yrs 3 yrs 4 yrs 5 yrs 6 yrs 7 yrs 8 yrs Priced seed 1.2 yrs Series A 2.9 yrs Series B 4.5 yrs Series C 5.7 yrs Series D 7.8 yrs Median age of the companies that raised each round in 2024.

Carta · 2,118 primary rounds by US companies · Jan–Sept 2024

The price — what you pay for the institutional roundTEAL = SEED · CLAY = SERIES A

The A prices at roughly 3× the seed — at every percentile

Post-money valuation benchmarks, seed vs. Series A, 2025. Harry Stebbings’ complaint — “pricing is 4–5× the seed round for minimal progression” — is the argument this chart is here to test.

Seed post-moneySeries A post-money
$20M $61M 3.0× 50th pct (median) $33M $105M 3.2× 75th pct $57M $197M 3.5× 90th pct $84M $277M 3.3× 95th pct Post-money valuation at seed vs. at the Series A that followed. The multiple is roughly constant across the distribution — the dollars are not.

Carta · US post-money valuation benchmarks, seed & Series A · 2025

What you sell to get there

Distribution of each round by % sold to VCs, seed vs. Series A. Both cluster at 20–24%; the A sells slightly less than the seed.

4 6 <5% 13 10 5–9% 15 18 10–14% 19 21 15–19% 28 28 20–24% 14 9 25–29% 4 3 30–34% 4 5 35%+ Medians: seed 19.5% · Series A 18.0% · B 14.0% · C 10.0% · D 7.5% % of rounds falling in each band

Carta · 2,005 primary rounds, US software startups · 2025

Fewer than 1 in 4 teams still own the majority

Founding-team share of fully diluted equity after each round closes. The majority is gone at the A, not at the B.

50% — majority Seed 55.8 Series A 36.2 Series B 23.2 Series C 16.4 Series D 11.4 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Line = 10th–90th pct · ticks = 25th / 75th · circle = median

Carta · founding-team ownership by stage · rounds raised 2021–2025

3×
The institutional transition, in one line: the A prices at about three times the seed, sells about the same slice of the company — and takes the founding team below 50% for good. What changes is not the dilution. It is the board seat, the pro-rata, and the bar you now have to clear every quarter. Discussion — Mercedes Bent, Premise VC