Venture Math · Fall 2026
1 · The price
Series BSeries CSeries D+median % sold
Carta Round Benchmarking, all US, Oct 2026
2 · The wait
B to CC to Dmedian years between rounds
| B → C | C → D | |
|---|---|---|
| Median time, 2024 | 2.0 yrs | 2.0 yrs |
| Median step-up | 1.6× (25th pct 1.1×) | 1.2×* |
PitchBook-NVCA (raised only; pre-2024 read) · Carta Q2 2024 · *PitchBook, untraced
3 · The odds
A new round is a markup, not cash. Only an exit above your entry price adds to DPI, and two years of waiting is a cost.
Carta: 616 companies at $1B+ in Dec 2021, status Jan 2025, via Redpoint · Carta · PitchBook
Peter Singlehurst (BG private companies head), 20VC, Mar 2025 · his figures · 2024, 10-person team, $10–150M cheques
| Vehicle | Type | Holdings | Fee | Price vs. NAV / access |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Mortgage (Baillie Gifford) | LSE trust | 53 private, 48 listed | 0.33% | −7.9% · 30 Sep |
| Schiehallion (Baillie Gifford) | LSE trust | 52 | 0.96% | −12.6% · 30 Sep |
| Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) | Listed fund | 37; 57% cash | 2.5% mgmt | −24.5% · 2 Nov price, 30 Jun NAV |
| Fundrise Innovation (VCX) | Listed fund | n/d | 3.40% | +76% on 8 Sep, +0.6% on 2 Nov, same NAV |
Why a broad index cannot be bought: secondaries traded $8.9B since 2024, ~0.1% of $8.23T; transfers need consent; marks go stale; US open-end funds cap illiquid assets at 15%. The broadest wrappers hold ~3% of the names.
Baillie Gifford reports, factsheets, SEC filings · total fees except DXYZ · Caplight via PitchBook · Rule 22e-4 · not exhaustive
| Tesla | SpaceX | |
|---|---|---|
| Listed, at age | Jun 2010, 7 | Jun 2026, 24 |
| Revenue, year before | $112M | $18.7B |
| Market cap at offer | $1.58B | $1.78T |
| Multiple since offer | 1,008× | 1.04× |
SpaceX private valuation, log scale
Two winners, one founder · SpaceX’s 148× since 2015 is company value incl. xAI, not a return · 424Bs, press, 13Fs
Series I ($125): −76% at IPO, −54% now. Series H ($60): −50%, −4%. Series F ($29.74): +1%, +94%. Ignores preferred protections.
$ per share · 424B4 for G–I · earlier per press · Yahoo
| Company | IPO | At offer | Nov 2 | Offer cap ÷ now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | 1997 | $0.43B | $2.66T | 0.02% |
| Tesla | 2010 | $1.58B | $1.60T | 0.1% |
| Uber | 2019 | $75.7B | $136B | 56% |
| SpaceX | 2026 | $1.78T | $1.85T | 96% |
| Figma | 2025 | $16.1B | $11.8B | 136% |
Over 100% = worth less than at IPO; recent names had little time · prospectuses, Yahoo
By count. “Private” means unlisted, Koch and Mars included; no one counts the venture-backed.
Not new: the most the listed share can be (listed ÷ $100M+ firms)
Apollo / S&P Capital IQ (no counts or history published) · Census, World Bank, our ceiling; $100M is nominal
US listed companies, 1990–2025.
World Bank, nominal · Doidge, Karolyi & Stulz · Doidge et al. 2018 · RBC/FactSet · UK Listing Review
US tech IPOs, Coatue’s count to Sep 2024
All US IPOs, 1980–2025, medians. Value up 7× since 1990, sales only 2× ($90M to $180M); price-to-sales 2.2× to 8.2×.
Median age 8–9 before 1999, 11 since: 2–3 years later.
Ritter · Coatue (large IPOs + SPACs); Ritter: 31 in 2025
Read with care: no published sample or window; top-tier examples include Tesla, Nvidia and Apple. Valuation, not returns, and reaching $100B is itself the filter. Coatue invests at this scale.
Thomas Laffont, All-In summit, Jun 2026, via Coatue
The queue grows: 178 new vs. 50 exits in H1 2026. The current stock alone takes 17–23 years to clear.
Tracker pages · PitchBook, Jun 30 · our arithmetic